Probability of injury

Probability estimates the chance or likelihood an at-risk behavior or environmental condition will cause an injury. This is the most difficult kind of risk evaluation to “see.”

Probability depends on a number of factors: If your job is stocking racks in a warehouse, what is the likelihood or probability of straining your back? Many factors come into play, including age, physical strength, and how well you follow safe material handling guidelines.

It’s hard to weigh all factors related to probability. It’s best to assume the probability of any injury occurring is fairly high, and put more stock in your estimates of exposure and severity.

Bottom line: to prioritize which hazards demand the most immediate attention, evaluate environmental and behavioral risks by ranking exposure, severity and probability.